**Arizona's nine U.S. House districts feature a 6-3 Republican majority entering the 2026 midterms, with Democrats holding three safe seats.** The two competitive districts—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—drive expectations around five Democratic wins. AZ-1, vacated by a Republican incumbent, is rated a toss-up with Democratic nominee Amish Shah facing Republican Jay Feely; recent ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify it as competitive, with some aggregators showing a slight Democratic lean. AZ-6 pits Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza against Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani in another toss-up or lean-Democratic contest, where polling has occasionally shown Mendoza ahead. National midterm dynamics, including a Democratic-favored generic ballot environment, support the market's emphasis on Democrats netting both seats for a total of five. A single flip would yield four Democratic seats, while both succeeding plus an unlikely additional gain points toward six. Primaries concluded in July without major disruptions, leaving fundraising, turnout in suburban and Latino-heavy areas, and late-cycle national conditions as the primary variables. The 53% probability on five reflects trader consensus on these two battlegrounds in the current environment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật5 53%
4 19.8%
6 16%
3 5.1%
$20,089 KL.
$20,089 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
<3
<1%
3
5%
4
22%
5
53%
6
16%
7+
1%
5 53%
4 19.8%
6 16%
3 5.1%
$20,089 KL.
$20,089 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
<3
$1,284 KL.
<1%
3
$6,317 KL.
5%
4
$4,719 KL.
22%
5
$4,869 KL.
53%
6
$1,873 KL.
16%
7+
$1,026 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Arizona's nine U.S. House districts feature a 6-3 Republican majority entering the 2026 midterms, with Democrats holding three safe seats.** The two competitive districts—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—drive expectations around five Democratic wins. AZ-1, vacated by a Republican incumbent, is rated a toss-up with Democratic nominee Amish Shah facing Republican Jay Feely; recent ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify it as competitive, with some aggregators showing a slight Democratic lean. AZ-6 pits Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza against Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani in another toss-up or lean-Democratic contest, where polling has occasionally shown Mendoza ahead.
National midterm dynamics, including a Democratic-favored generic ballot environment, support the market's emphasis on Democrats netting both seats for a total of five. A single flip would yield four Democratic seats, while both succeeding plus an unlikely additional gain points toward six. Primaries concluded in July without major disruptions, leaving fundraising, turnout in suburban and Latino-heavy areas, and late-cycle national conditions as the primary variables. The 53% probability on five reflects trader consensus on these two battlegrounds in the current environment.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ET
Khối lượng
$20,089Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Arizona's nine U.S. House districts feature a 6-3 Republican majority entering the 2026 midterms, with Democrats holding three safe seats.** The two competitive districts—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—drive expectations around five Democratic wins. AZ-1, vacated by a Republican incumbent, is rated a toss-up with Democratic nominee Amish Shah facing Republican Jay Feely; recent ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify it as competitive, with some aggregators showing a slight Democratic lean. AZ-6 pits Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza against Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani in another toss-up or lean-Democratic contest, where polling has occasionally shown Mendoza ahead.
National midterm dynamics, including a Democratic-favored generic ballot environment, support the market's emphasis on Democrats netting both seats for a total of five. A single flip would yield four Democratic seats, while both succeeding plus an unlikely additional gain points toward six. Primaries concluded in July without major disruptions, leaving fundraising, turnout in suburban and Latino-heavy areas, and late-cycle national conditions as the primary variables. The 53% probability on five reflects trader consensus on these two battlegrounds in the current environment.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$20,089Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Arizona's nine U.S. House districts feature a 6-3 Republican majority entering the 2026 midterms, with Democrats holding three safe seats.** The two competitive districts—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—drive expectations around five Democratic wins. AZ-1, vacated by a Republican incumbent, is rated a toss-up with Democratic nominee Amish Shah facing Republican Jay Feely; recent ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify it as competitive, with some aggregators showing a slight Democratic lean. AZ-6 pits Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza against Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani in another toss-up or lean-Democratic contest, where polling has occasionally shown Mendoza ahead. National midterm dynamics, including a Democratic-favored generic ballot environment, support the market's emphasis on Democrats netting both seats for a total of five. A single flip would yield four Democratic seats, while both succeeding plus an unlikely additional gain points toward six. Primaries concluded in July without major disruptions, leaving fundraising, turnout in suburban and Latino-heavy areas, and late-cycle national conditions as the primary variables. The 53% probability on five reflects trader consensus on these two battlegrounds in the current environment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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