Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and Bab el-Mandeb Strait since early September 2026, including control of Mokha and Perim Island, have heightened the risk of vessel seizures by expanding operational reach near key shipping lanes. These advances coincide with resumed attacks on commercial traffic, including Saudi oil tankers such as the Amzan in August, driving war-risk insurance premiums higher and prompting some carriers to divert around the Cape of Good Hope. Saudi crude exports via the strait have faced pressure, with output falling to roughly 6 million barrels per day in August amid pipeline disruptions and rerouting. Oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel as markets priced in supply uncertainty from the Iran-linked conflict. Trader sentiment on related Polymarket contracts reflects ongoing escalation potential, with resolution hinging on any confirmed seizure of an oil-laden vessel before upcoming deadlines amid active Yemeni government counteroffensives.