Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island, one of several strategic outposts it has held since 1971 to influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent US-Iran military exchanges have centered on naval interdiction, coastal radar and missile sites, and shipping routes rather than amphibious or ground operations targeting the island itself. Iranian officials continue to assert full sovereignty and operational authority over the waterway and its islands, while diplomatic efforts with Oman and Gulf states on management arrangements remain stalled or postponed as of mid-September 2026. Trader consensus assigns very low probability to any near-term shift in control, reflecting the absence of reported coalition advances, the logistical challenges of island seizure amid ongoing naval tensions, and Iran's emphasis on asserting leverage through mines, drones, and route coordination instead.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$71,109 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$71,109 KL.
September 30
$832 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island, one of several strategic outposts it has held since 1971 to influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent US-Iran military exchanges have centered on naval interdiction, coastal radar and missile sites, and shipping routes rather than amphibious or ground operations targeting the island itself. Iranian officials continue to assert full sovereignty and operational authority over the waterway and its islands, while diplomatic efforts with Oman and Gulf states on management arrangements remain stalled or postponed as of mid-September 2026. Trader consensus assigns very low probability to any near-term shift in control, reflecting the absence of reported coalition advances, the logistical challenges of island seizure amid ongoing naval tensions, and Iran's emphasis on asserting leverage through mines, drones, and route coordination instead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Khối lượng
$71,109Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island, one of several strategic outposts it has held since 1971 to influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent US-Iran military exchanges have centered on naval interdiction, coastal radar and missile sites, and shipping routes rather than amphibious or ground operations targeting the island itself. Iranian officials continue to assert full sovereignty and operational authority over the waterway and its islands, while diplomatic efforts with Oman and Gulf states on management arrangements remain stalled or postponed as of mid-September 2026. Trader consensus assigns very low probability to any near-term shift in control, reflecting the absence of reported coalition advances, the logistical challenges of island seizure amid ongoing naval tensions, and Iran's emphasis on asserting leverage through mines, drones, and route coordination instead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$71,109Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island, one of several strategic outposts it has held since 1971 to influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent US-Iran military exchanges have centered on naval interdiction, coastal radar and missile sites, and shipping routes rather than amphibious or ground operations targeting the island itself. Iranian officials continue to assert full sovereignty and operational authority over the waterway and its islands, while diplomatic efforts with Oman and Gulf states on management arrangements remain stalled or postponed as of mid-September 2026. Trader consensus assigns very low probability to any near-term shift in control, reflecting the absence of reported coalition advances, the logistical challenges of island seizure amid ongoing naval tensions, and Iran's emphasis on asserting leverage through mines, drones, and route coordination instead.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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