Labour's candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali holds a strong position in the October 8 by-election to replace Keir Starmer, yet the market prices non-Labour victory at 50% and narrow Labour margins as the next most likely outcomes due to the Green Party's high-profile challenge. Green leader Zack Polanski benefits from endorsements by former independent Andrew Feinstein, who polled nearly 19% in 2024, and local left-leaning voters in a constituency where Greens previously reached 10.4%. George Galloway's Workers Party candidacy further fragments that vote. With 15 candidates on the ballot and no fresh constituency polls released in the final week, traders weigh Labour's historical dominance and local council ties against potential turnout shifts and protest dynamics in this inner-London seat.