Labour’s vote share in the 8 October 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election reflects a narrower contest than the party’s 48.9% result in 2024, driven by Green Party gains in the May Camden local elections and a high-profile challenge from Green leader Zack Polanski. Projections from Electoral Calculus, PollCheck and Stats for Lefties place Labour between 39% and 42%, with Greens ranging from 24% to 38%, narrowing the historical gap. The entry of Workers Party leader George Galloway has further fragmented the left-leaning vote previously captured by independent Andrew Feinstein. Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali, Camden Council leader, benefits from the party’s local organisational strength and the new prime minister’s early polling recovery, while low expected turnout and the absence of a fresh constituency poll leave room for movement in the final days. Trader pricing concentrates on the 35–50% bands, consistent with these models.