Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali secured 45.1% in the 8 October 2026 by-election for the seat vacated by Keir Starmer, while Green leader Zack Polanski took 32.8%, producing a 22.4-point swing for the Greens from their 10.4% share in 2024. Traders have converged on the 30-35% band because the verified tally places the Green vote share squarely inside that interval amid 38.8% turnout. The result reflects sustained local momentum after the Greens’ strong Camden council performance in May, combined with Polanski’s high-profile candidacy in a constituency where left-leaning voters had previously backed an independent. Late-campaign controversy over a party conference motion on Zionism appears to have capped further gains, leaving Labour comfortably ahead despite the reduced majority. No material counting disputes or recounts have emerged that would alter the published percentages.