Official meteorological observations from Moscow stations recorded a daily maximum of 22°C on September 17, 2026, aligning with Hydrometcenter forecasts of 21–23°C under variable cloud cover, light southwesterly winds, and stable high pressure around 760 mmHg. This consensus across model runs and real-time data drove the market's 100% implied probability for exactly 22°C, reflecting trader confidence in verified surface measurements rather than broader climatological averages near 16°C. Minor deviations could arise only from post-hoc station corrections or localized microclimate effects, though current evidence makes such shifts improbable.