The market's near-certain pricing on a 26°C high reflects official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and local authorities, which projected a daytime maximum of 26°C on September 16 under mostly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and isolated light rain potential in the high-elevation Valley of Mexico. This aligns with September climatology, where average highs range 24–26°C amid transitioning monsoon patterns and high solar angles. Official station measurements, including from Benito Juárez International Airport, confirmed the peak fell squarely at this threshold, leaving scant uncertainty. Only an unexpected late-afternoon spike or station-specific microclimate deviation could have altered resolution, scenarios forecasters deemed highly improbable given consistent model runs and observed conditions.