**Latest meteorological model consensus from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF projects a maximum of 33°C in Madrid on September 12 under clear skies, light easterly winds, and low humidity, driving the near-certain market-implied probability.** This aligns with current observations showing afternoon peaks near that threshold amid a broader warm spell exceeding the 1991–2020 average high of 27.3°C for the date. Traders appear to weigh the strong model agreement and minimal forecast spread as decisive for resolution criteria based on official station readings. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized measurement discrepancies at the primary Madrid station could still shift the recorded high by 1–2°C.