Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from major agencies position a 27°C maximum for Istanbul on August 19 under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with Black Sea surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow suppressing additional warming. This forecast stability, absent strong downslope or föhn effects, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for 27°C as the resolution outcome. Updated model runs ahead of peak afternoon heating remain the key catalyst, with traders weighting the narrow uncertainty range heavily. A shift in steering patterns or unexpected southerly advection could realistically push readings to 28–29°C, though current observational trends and historical analogs for the date make such deviations unlikely.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 19?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 19?
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$34,334 KL.
$34,334 KL.
Aug 19, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$34,334 KL.
$34,334 KL.
Aug 19, 2026
23°C or below
$250 KL.
No
24°C
$3,705 KL.
No
25°C
$1,854 KL.
No
26°C
$6,139 KL.
No
27°C
$8,076 KL.
Yes
28°C
$4,564 KL.
No
29°C
$4,104 KL.
No
30°C
$3,783 KL.
No
31°C
$798 KL.
No
32°C
$524 KL.
No
33°C or higher
$536 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from major agencies position a 27°C maximum for Istanbul on August 19 under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with Black Sea surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow suppressing additional warming. This forecast stability, absent strong downslope or föhn effects, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for 27°C as the resolution outcome. Updated model runs ahead of peak afternoon heating remain the key catalyst, with traders weighting the narrow uncertainty range heavily. A shift in steering patterns or unexpected southerly advection could realistically push readings to 28–29°C, though current observational trends and historical analogs for the date make such deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$34,334Ngày kết thúc
Aug 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from major agencies position a 27°C maximum for Istanbul on August 19 under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with Black Sea surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow suppressing additional warming. This forecast stability, absent strong downslope or föhn effects, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for 27°C as the resolution outcome. Updated model runs ahead of peak afternoon heating remain the key catalyst, with traders weighting the narrow uncertainty range heavily. A shift in steering patterns or unexpected southerly advection could realistically push readings to 28–29°C, though current observational trends and historical analogs for the date make such deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$34,334Ngày kết thúc
Aug 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from major agencies position a 27°C maximum for Istanbul on August 19 under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with Black Sea surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow suppressing additional warming. This forecast stability, absent strong downslope or föhn effects, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for 27°C as the resolution outcome. Updated model runs ahead of peak afternoon heating remain the key catalyst, with traders weighting the narrow uncertainty range heavily. A shift in steering patterns or unexpected southerly advection could realistically push readings to 28–29°C, though current observational trends and historical analogs for the date make such deviations unlikely.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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