Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and other agencies indicate a daily maximum of 35°C for Chengdu on August 11 amid persistent subtropical high pressure over the Sichuan Basin, which favors strong afternoon solar heating with limited cloud cover. This aligns with typical late-summer climatology showing average August highs of 30–34°C and recent guidance centering on mid-30s peaks, while humid air masses and possible scattered thundershowers act as moderating influences. Trader consensus at 100% for the 35°C outcome reflects this model agreement and historical precedent. A sudden shift toward clearer skies or revised model runs could push readings higher, though current conditions make that outcome unlikely.