The absence of any magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake through mid-September 2026, with the year’s largest events at 7.8 in the Philippines and Indonesia, underpins the 74.5% market-implied odds for a highest magnitude of 7.9 or below. USGS data show 11 magnitude 7.0–7.9 events so far, consistent with typical annual rates of roughly one M8+ globally, while recent activity along subduction zones and the Ring of Fire has produced only moderate aftershocks and smaller events. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, the low probabilities assigned to 8.0–8.1 (10.0%) and higher reflect both the statistical infrequency of great earthquakes and the limited time window for a sufficiently large rupture on major faults. Ongoing USGS monitoring and any new model runs on seismic gaps could shift sentiment if an unexpected intensification occurs.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 10%
8.2 – 8.3 7.1%
8.6 – 8.7 4.3%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
75%
8.0 – 8.1
10%
8.2 – 8.3
7%
8.4 – 8.5
2%
8.6 – 8.7
4%
8.8 – 8.9
1%
9.0 or above
3%
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 10%
8.2 – 8.3 7.1%
8.6 – 8.7 4.3%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
$2,365 KL.
75%
8.0 – 8.1
$562 KL.
10%
8.2 – 8.3
$331 KL.
7%
8.4 – 8.5
$206 KL.
2%
8.6 – 8.7
$311 KL.
4%
8.8 – 8.9
$208 KL.
1%
9.0 or above
$161 KL.
3%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The absence of any magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake through mid-September 2026, with the year’s largest events at 7.8 in the Philippines and Indonesia, underpins the 74.5% market-implied odds for a highest magnitude of 7.9 or below. USGS data show 11 magnitude 7.0–7.9 events so far, consistent with typical annual rates of roughly one M8+ globally, while recent activity along subduction zones and the Ring of Fire has produced only moderate aftershocks and smaller events. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, the low probabilities assigned to 8.0–8.1 (10.0%) and higher reflect both the statistical infrequency of great earthquakes and the limited time window for a sufficiently large rupture on major faults. Ongoing USGS monitoring and any new model runs on seismic gaps could shift sentiment if an unexpected intensification occurs.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Khối lượng
$4,143Ngày kết thúc
Jan 4, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The absence of any magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake through mid-September 2026, with the year’s largest events at 7.8 in the Philippines and Indonesia, underpins the 74.5% market-implied odds for a highest magnitude of 7.9 or below. USGS data show 11 magnitude 7.0–7.9 events so far, consistent with typical annual rates of roughly one M8+ globally, while recent activity along subduction zones and the Ring of Fire has produced only moderate aftershocks and smaller events. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, the low probabilities assigned to 8.0–8.1 (10.0%) and higher reflect both the statistical infrequency of great earthquakes and the limited time window for a sufficiently large rupture on major faults. Ongoing USGS monitoring and any new model runs on seismic gaps could shift sentiment if an unexpected intensification occurs.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Khối lượng
$4,143Ngày kết thúc
Jan 4, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The absence of any magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake through mid-September 2026, with the year’s largest events at 7.8 in the Philippines and Indonesia, underpins the 74.5% market-implied odds for a highest magnitude of 7.9 or below. USGS data show 11 magnitude 7.0–7.9 events so far, consistent with typical annual rates of roughly one M8+ globally, while recent activity along subduction zones and the Ring of Fire has produced only moderate aftershocks and smaller events. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, the low probabilities assigned to 8.0–8.1 (10.0%) and higher reflect both the statistical infrequency of great earthquakes and the limited time window for a sufficiently large rupture on major faults. Ongoing USGS monitoring and any new model runs on seismic gaps could shift sentiment if an unexpected intensification occurs.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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