Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes near Hengam in July 2026 and on nearby Larak Island launchers in late August, have kept trader attention on Iranian island defenses without producing verified shifts in administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while asserting sovereignty, amid a broader conflict that began in February. Hengam forms part of Iran's curved defensive line alongside Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz, enabling oversight of shipping routes. No official statements or credible reporting confirm occupation, amphibious seizure, or handover to another authority. Market-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late 2026 dates remain very low, reflecting the distinction between temporary strikes and sustained changes in effective governance. Further escalation or negotiated pauses could influence outcomes before resolution windows close.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$208,395 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$208,395 KL.
September 30
$2,554 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes near Hengam in July 2026 and on nearby Larak Island launchers in late August, have kept trader attention on Iranian island defenses without producing verified shifts in administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while asserting sovereignty, amid a broader conflict that began in February. Hengam forms part of Iran's curved defensive line alongside Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz, enabling oversight of shipping routes. No official statements or credible reporting confirm occupation, amphibious seizure, or handover to another authority. Market-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late 2026 dates remain very low, reflecting the distinction between temporary strikes and sustained changes in effective governance. Further escalation or negotiated pauses could influence outcomes before resolution windows close.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$208,395Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes near Hengam in July 2026 and on nearby Larak Island launchers in late August, have kept trader attention on Iranian island defenses without producing verified shifts in administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while asserting sovereignty, amid a broader conflict that began in February. Hengam forms part of Iran's curved defensive line alongside Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz, enabling oversight of shipping routes. No official statements or credible reporting confirm occupation, amphibious seizure, or handover to another authority. Market-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late 2026 dates remain very low, reflecting the distinction between temporary strikes and sustained changes in effective governance. Further escalation or negotiated pauses could influence outcomes before resolution windows close.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$208,395Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes near Hengam in July 2026 and on nearby Larak Island launchers in late August, have kept trader attention on Iranian island defenses without producing verified shifts in administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while asserting sovereignty, amid a broader conflict that began in February. Hengam forms part of Iran's curved defensive line alongside Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz, enabling oversight of shipping routes. No official statements or credible reporting confirm occupation, amphibious seizure, or handover to another authority. Market-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late 2026 dates remain very low, reflecting the distinction between temporary strikes and sustained changes in effective governance. Further escalation or negotiated pauses could influence outcomes before resolution windows close.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp