The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial, declared on May 15 after a deadlocked jury, has solidified trader consensus around no additional prison time at 74.6% implied probability. Ongoing appeals of his separate 16-year California sentence, combined with six-plus years already served, advanced age, documented health issues, and time-served credits, position further incarceration as increasingly unlikely. Mixed prior verdicts and repeated hung juries underscore the contested nature of the remaining charges, while upcoming hearings on whether prosecutors will pursue a fourth trial introduce limited near-term volatility. Historical patterns in similar high-profile cases reinforce the market’s emphasis on appeals success and practical sentencing realities over new convictions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtThời gian ngồi tù của Harvey Weinstein?
Thời gian ngồi tù của Harvey Weinstein?
Không bị tù 74.6%
20-30 năm 8.1%
10-20 năm 6.2%
Dưới 5 năm 3.9%
$1,057,350 KL.
$1,057,350 KL.
Dec 31, 2025
Không bị tù
75%
Dưới 5 năm
4%
5-10 years
3%
10-20 năm
6%
20-30 năm
8%
Hơn 30 năm
3%
Không bị tù 74.6%
20-30 năm 8.1%
10-20 năm 6.2%
Dưới 5 năm 3.9%
$1,057,350 KL.
$1,057,350 KL.
Dec 31, 2025
Không bị tù
$368,951 KL.
75%
Dưới 5 năm
$138,666 KL.
4%
5-10 years
$88,360 KL.
3%
10-20 năm
$167,420 KL.
6%
20-30 năm
$210,666 KL.
8%
Hơn 30 năm
$83,288 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial, declared on May 15 after a deadlocked jury, has solidified trader consensus around no additional prison time at 74.6% implied probability. Ongoing appeals of his separate 16-year California sentence, combined with six-plus years already served, advanced age, documented health issues, and time-served credits, position further incarceration as increasingly unlikely. Mixed prior verdicts and repeated hung juries underscore the contested nature of the remaining charges, while upcoming hearings on whether prosecutors will pursue a fourth trial introduce limited near-term volatility. Historical patterns in similar high-profile cases reinforce the market’s emphasis on appeals success and practical sentencing realities over new convictions.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,057,350Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2025Thị trường mở
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial, declared on May 15 after a deadlocked jury, has solidified trader consensus around no additional prison time at 74.6% implied probability. Ongoing appeals of his separate 16-year California sentence, combined with six-plus years already served, advanced age, documented health issues, and time-served credits, position further incarceration as increasingly unlikely. Mixed prior verdicts and repeated hung juries underscore the contested nature of the remaining charges, while upcoming hearings on whether prosecutors will pursue a fourth trial introduce limited near-term volatility. Historical patterns in similar high-profile cases reinforce the market’s emphasis on appeals success and practical sentencing realities over new convictions.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$1,057,350Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2025Thị trường mở
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial, declared on May 15 after a deadlocked jury, has solidified trader consensus around no additional prison time at 74.6% implied probability. Ongoing appeals of his separate 16-year California sentence, combined with six-plus years already served, advanced age, documented health issues, and time-served credits, position further incarceration as increasingly unlikely. Mixed prior verdicts and repeated hung juries underscore the contested nature of the remaining charges, while upcoming hearings on whether prosecutors will pursue a fourth trial introduce limited near-term volatility. Historical patterns in similar high-profile cases reinforce the market’s emphasis on appeals success and practical sentencing realities over new convictions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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