Raphaël Glucksmann holds a commanding lead in the French Socialist primary first-round market due to consistent advantages in national presidential polling, where he registers around 11 percent support compared to single digits or less for rivals, combined with endorsements from senior PS figures such as Senate group leader Patrick Kanner and strong organizational growth in Place publique. The open primary, open to roughly 140,000 voters from the PS, Place publique, and Gauche républicaine et socialiste, favors his broader appeal on Europe, Ukraine policy, and opposition to alliances with La France Insoumise. Recent televised debates reinforced this positioning without major shifts. Late surges by Olivier Faure, Ségolène Royal, or Jérôme Guedj through higher turnout among core PS members or unexpected coalition signals remain the main factors that could narrow his margin before voting concludes on October 10.