**Olivier Faure leads market pricing for second place in the first round of the French social-democratic primary (October 9–11, 2026) at 71%, ahead of Ségolène Royal at 22.5% and lower probabilities for Raphaël Glucksmann, Emmanuel Maurel, Jérôme Guedj, and others.** Recent Harris Interactive polling among left-leaning voters shows Glucksmann well ahead at around 33%, followed by Royal near 16% and Faure at 9%, reflecting Glucksmann’s stronger national profile and Place Publique base. However, the roughly 140,000 eligible voters—primarily PS members alongside Place Publique adherents and platform registrants—favor Faure’s institutional position within the larger PS contingent for second place. Three televised debates sharpened differences over alliances with La France Insoumise and foreign policy stances, while a cyberattack extended the electronic vote window. These factors underpin trader consensus on the likely ranking behind the frontrunner.