Incumbent Republican Carlos Giménez holds a commanding position in Florida’s 28th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, driven by the district’s consistent Republican lean, his fundraising advantage with over $600,000 cash on hand, and uncontested primary path. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the seat’s performance in the 2024 presidential contest and post-redistricting map. Democrat Phil Ehr, a retired Navy commander in a rematch, has secured endorsements from national security groups and labor organizations, yet faces structural barriers in a district where recent polling averages show double-digit Republican margins. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp national partisan swings could still narrow the gap before Election Day.