A strengthening super El Niño, now carrying over 90% confidence from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for the 2026-27 winter, stands as the dominant driver shaping trader views on first measurable snow timing. This pattern typically shifts the jet stream southward, favoring wetter conditions and earlier cold outbreaks across the southern and central U.S. while suppressing snow in the northern tier and Pacific Northwest. Recent high-elevation dustings in Washington, Alberta, and British Columbia, alongside AccuWeather and seasonal outlooks highlighting elevated September snow odds in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and Colorado Rockies, reinforce expectations for an early start in higher terrain. Forecasters watch upcoming Climate Prediction Center updates and National Weather Service model runs through mid-September for refined temperature and precipitation guidance that could shift probabilities for lower-elevation first flakes. Historical El Niño analogs provide additional context for regional variability in onset dates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFirst snow of the 2026 season

Buffalo, NY by October 31
56%

Denver, CO by October 31
63%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
59%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
53%

Boston, MA by November 15
69%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
93%

Chicago, IL by November 15
63%

Denver, CO by November 15
94%

Detroit, MI by November 15
62%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
73%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
39%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
88%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
52%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
71%

Boston, MA by November 30
85%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
93%

Chicago, IL by November 30
74%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
88%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
64%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
15%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
78%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
$8,689 KL.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
56%

Denver, CO by October 31
63%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
59%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
53%

Boston, MA by November 15
69%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
93%

Chicago, IL by November 15
63%

Denver, CO by November 15
94%

Detroit, MI by November 15
62%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
73%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
39%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
88%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
52%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
71%

Boston, MA by November 30
85%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
93%

Chicago, IL by November 30
74%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
88%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
64%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
15%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
78%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...A strengthening super El Niño, now carrying over 90% confidence from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for the 2026-27 winter, stands as the dominant driver shaping trader views on first measurable snow timing. This pattern typically shifts the jet stream southward, favoring wetter conditions and earlier cold outbreaks across the southern and central U.S. while suppressing snow in the northern tier and Pacific Northwest. Recent high-elevation dustings in Washington, Alberta, and British Columbia, alongside AccuWeather and seasonal outlooks highlighting elevated September snow odds in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and Colorado Rockies, reinforce expectations for an early start in higher terrain. Forecasters watch upcoming Climate Prediction Center updates and National Weather Service model runs through mid-September for refined temperature and precipitation guidance that could shift probabilities for lower-elevation first flakes. Historical El Niño analogs provide additional context for regional variability in onset dates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật

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