Mexico’s status as 2026 co-host and its two home matches, including the June 11 opener against South Africa at Estadio Azteca, underpin the 51.5% implied probability assigned by traders. The squad, bolstered by recent CONCACAF results and a deep preliminary roster, faces South Korea and Czechia in subsequent fixtures that favor the hosts’ experience and crowd support. Czechia and South Korea, both established qualifiers with solid recent form, split the next tier of probabilities near 20% each on the strength of UEFA and AFC pedigree, while South Africa’s 5.8% reflects limited international results and a tough draw. The group stage schedule, with limited rest between matches, keeps outcomes tightly contested beyond the favorite.