**No** holds an 88% implied probability because Congress has not enacted a broad reduction in federal long-term capital gains rates or major indexing changes through mid-September 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act and related 2025 legislation made portions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent and expanded certain investment incentives, yet left the top rate at 20% plus the 3.8% net investment income tax unchanged. Proposals to index gains for inflation, lower the top rate to 15%, or expand home-sale exclusions have surfaced in bills and administration discussions, including efforts tied to lame-duck timing, but none have cleared the necessary legislative hurdles amid competing priorities and the approaching midterm elections. Targeted measures for farms or seniors remain in committee without passage. Traders therefore view enactment of a general cut before the end of 2026 as unlikely.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật12% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
12% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No** holds an 88% implied probability because Congress has not enacted a broad reduction in federal long-term capital gains rates or major indexing changes through mid-September 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act and related 2025 legislation made portions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent and expanded certain investment incentives, yet left the top rate at 20% plus the 3.8% net investment income tax unchanged. Proposals to index gains for inflation, lower the top rate to 15%, or expand home-sale exclusions have surfaced in bills and administration discussions, including efforts tied to lame-duck timing, but none have cleared the necessary legislative hurdles amid competing priorities and the approaching midterm elections. Targeted measures for farms or seniors remain in committee without passage. Traders therefore view enactment of a general cut before the end of 2026 as unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Khối lượng
$329Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No** holds an 88% implied probability because Congress has not enacted a broad reduction in federal long-term capital gains rates or major indexing changes through mid-September 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act and related 2025 legislation made portions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent and expanded certain investment incentives, yet left the top rate at 20% plus the 3.8% net investment income tax unchanged. Proposals to index gains for inflation, lower the top rate to 15%, or expand home-sale exclusions have surfaced in bills and administration discussions, including efforts tied to lame-duck timing, but none have cleared the necessary legislative hurdles amid competing priorities and the approaching midterm elections. Targeted measures for farms or seniors remain in committee without passage. Traders therefore view enactment of a general cut before the end of 2026 as unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$329Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**No** holds an 88% implied probability because Congress has not enacted a broad reduction in federal long-term capital gains rates or major indexing changes through mid-September 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act and related 2025 legislation made portions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent and expanded certain investment incentives, yet left the top rate at 20% plus the 3.8% net investment income tax unchanged. Proposals to index gains for inflation, lower the top rate to 15%, or expand home-sale exclusions have surfaced in bills and administration discussions, including efforts tied to lame-duck timing, but none have cleared the necessary legislative hurdles amid competing priorities and the approaching midterm elections. Targeted measures for farms or seniors remain in committee without passage. Traders therefore view enactment of a general cut before the end of 2026 as unlikely.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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