Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật<40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$553,270 KL.
$553,270 KL.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
Yes
40-64
No
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
<40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$553,270 KL.
$553,270 KL.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
$167,892 KL.
Yes
40-64
$113,852 KL.
No
65-89
$116,364 KL.
No
90-114
$69,008 KL.
No
115-139
$48,700 KL.
No
140-164
$16,923 KL.
No
165-189
$8,347 KL.
No
190-214
$3,264 KL.
No
215-239
$4,806 KL.
No
240+
$4,113 KL.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$553,270Ngày kết thúc
Aug 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Khối lượng
$553,270Ngày kết thúc
Aug 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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