Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed euro-area energy prices sharply higher, elevating ECB staff inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026 and prompting multiple Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, to signal openness to tighter policy. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April, officials have described a data-dependent path that now includes at least one 25-basis-point hike, with markets and forecaster surveys pricing in one or two moves by year-end. This combination of persistent upside inflation risks and explicit forward guidance underpins the 96.7% trader consensus that a rate increase will occur sometime in 2026. A rapid de-escalation easing energy costs or unexpectedly weak growth and price data could still shift the outlook.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$124,097 KL.
$124,097 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$124,097 KL.
$124,097 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed euro-area energy prices sharply higher, elevating ECB staff inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026 and prompting multiple Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, to signal openness to tighter policy. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April, officials have described a data-dependent path that now includes at least one 25-basis-point hike, with markets and forecaster surveys pricing in one or two moves by year-end. This combination of persistent upside inflation risks and explicit forward guidance underpins the 96.7% trader consensus that a rate increase will occur sometime in 2026. A rapid de-escalation easing energy costs or unexpectedly weak growth and price data could still shift the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$124,097Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed euro-area energy prices sharply higher, elevating ECB staff inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026 and prompting multiple Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, to signal openness to tighter policy. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April, officials have described a data-dependent path that now includes at least one 25-basis-point hike, with markets and forecaster surveys pricing in one or two moves by year-end. This combination of persistent upside inflation risks and explicit forward guidance underpins the 96.7% trader consensus that a rate increase will occur sometime in 2026. A rapid de-escalation easing energy costs or unexpectedly weak growth and price data could still shift the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$124,097Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed euro-area energy prices sharply higher, elevating ECB staff inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026 and prompting multiple Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, to signal openness to tighter policy. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April, officials have described a data-dependent path that now includes at least one 25-basis-point hike, with markets and forecaster surveys pricing in one or two moves by year-end. This combination of persistent upside inflation risks and explicit forward guidance underpins the 96.7% trader consensus that a rate increase will occur sometime in 2026. A rapid de-escalation easing energy costs or unexpectedly weak growth and price data could still shift the outlook.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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