Recent Middle East energy price surges have intensified upside risks to euro-area inflation, prompting the European Central Bank to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting while signaling data-dependent tightening. Upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts and resilient labor conditions have shifted trader consensus toward a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 gathering, reflected in the 86% implied probability. No-change pricing at 12% accounts for residual uncertainty around incoming inflation readings and commodity trends, with the ECB emphasizing a meeting-by-meeting approach absent pre-commitment to any rate path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật25 bps Increase 86%
No change 12.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$349,131 KL.
$349,131 KL.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
12%
25 bps Increase
86%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 86%
No change 12.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$349,131 KL.
$349,131 KL.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$60,661 KL.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$63,809 KL.
<1%
No change
$73,766 KL.
12%
25 bps Increase
$86,060 KL.
86%
50+ bps increase
$64,834 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent Middle East energy price surges have intensified upside risks to euro-area inflation, prompting the European Central Bank to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting while signaling data-dependent tightening. Upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts and resilient labor conditions have shifted trader consensus toward a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 gathering, reflected in the 86% implied probability. No-change pricing at 12% accounts for residual uncertainty around incoming inflation readings and commodity trends, with the ECB emphasizing a meeting-by-meeting approach absent pre-commitment to any rate path.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$349,131Ngày kết thúc
Jun 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent Middle East energy price surges have intensified upside risks to euro-area inflation, prompting the European Central Bank to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting while signaling data-dependent tightening. Upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts and resilient labor conditions have shifted trader consensus toward a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 gathering, reflected in the 86% implied probability. No-change pricing at 12% accounts for residual uncertainty around incoming inflation readings and commodity trends, with the ECB emphasizing a meeting-by-meeting approach absent pre-commitment to any rate path.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Khối lượng
$349,131Ngày kết thúc
Jun 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East energy price surges have intensified upside risks to euro-area inflation, prompting the European Central Bank to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting while signaling data-dependent tightening. Upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts and resilient labor conditions have shifted trader consensus toward a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 gathering, reflected in the 86% implied probability. No-change pricing at 12% accounts for residual uncertainty around incoming inflation readings and commodity trends, with the ECB emphasizing a meeting-by-meeting approach absent pre-commitment to any rate path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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