Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp energy price increases, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 euro-area inflation projections higher to around 2.6% while flagging risks of second-round effects on core measures. Following the April 30 hold at the 2.00% deposit facility rate, Governing Council communications and economist surveys now embed expectations for a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 meeting to stabilize inflation expectations. This data-dependent stance, reinforced by resilient labor conditions and contained growth damage to date, underpins the market-implied 86.5% probability on the 25 bps increase outcome. Traders will monitor incoming inflation prints and energy price trajectories ahead of the decision for any shifts in the rate path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật25 bps Increase 87%
No change 13.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$348,692 KL.
$348,692 KL.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
13%
25 bps Increase
87%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 87%
No change 13.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$348,692 KL.
$348,692 KL.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$60,661 KL.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$63,722 KL.
<1%
No change
$73,556 KL.
13%
25 bps Increase
$85,974 KL.
87%
50+ bps increase
$64,777 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp energy price increases, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 euro-area inflation projections higher to around 2.6% while flagging risks of second-round effects on core measures. Following the April 30 hold at the 2.00% deposit facility rate, Governing Council communications and economist surveys now embed expectations for a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 meeting to stabilize inflation expectations. This data-dependent stance, reinforced by resilient labor conditions and contained growth damage to date, underpins the market-implied 86.5% probability on the 25 bps increase outcome. Traders will monitor incoming inflation prints and energy price trajectories ahead of the decision for any shifts in the rate path.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$348,692Ngày kết thúc
Jun 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp energy price increases, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 euro-area inflation projections higher to around 2.6% while flagging risks of second-round effects on core measures. Following the April 30 hold at the 2.00% deposit facility rate, Governing Council communications and economist surveys now embed expectations for a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 meeting to stabilize inflation expectations. This data-dependent stance, reinforced by resilient labor conditions and contained growth damage to date, underpins the market-implied 86.5% probability on the 25 bps increase outcome. Traders will monitor incoming inflation prints and energy price trajectories ahead of the decision for any shifts in the rate path.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Khối lượng
$348,692Ngày kết thúc
Jun 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp energy price increases, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 euro-area inflation projections higher to around 2.6% while flagging risks of second-round effects on core measures. Following the April 30 hold at the 2.00% deposit facility rate, Governing Council communications and economist surveys now embed expectations for a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 meeting to stabilize inflation expectations. This data-dependent stance, reinforced by resilient labor conditions and contained growth damage to date, underpins the market-implied 86.5% probability on the 25 bps increase outcome. Traders will monitor incoming inflation prints and energy price trajectories ahead of the decision for any shifts in the rate path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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