Databricks' decision to pursue a fresh private round at up to $188 billion valuation in July 2026, rather than file an S-1, underpins the 63.5% market-implied probability of no IPO by end-2027. CEO Ali Ghodsi cited a crowded 2026 calendar and unfavorable conditions, prompting the company to extend its private status despite ARR reaching $6.9 billion (80% YoY growth). This trajectory, anchored by the prior $134 billion Series L round and secondary trading in the $165–175 billion range, shapes trader consensus around mid-tier outcomes such as $150–200 billion if an IPO eventually occurs. Upcoming catalysts include any shift in Fed policy or IPO window reopening that could accelerate timing and lift closing market-cap expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$150B-$200B 91%
$450B+ 89%
$400B-$450B 86%
<$150B 85%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
85%
$150B-$200B
91%
$200B-$250B
42%
$250B-$300B
42%
$300B-$350B
44%
$350B-$400B
26%
$400B-$450B
86%
$450B+
89%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
63%
$150B-$200B 91%
$450B+ 89%
$400B-$450B 86%
<$150B 85%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
$0 KL.
85%
$150B-$200B
$0 KL.
91%
$200B-$250B
$18 KL.
42%
$250B-$300B
$18 KL.
42%
$300B-$350B
$18 KL.
44%
$350B-$400B
$18 KL.
26%
$400B-$450B
$0 KL.
86%
$450B+
$0 KL.
89%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$172 KL.
63%
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Databricks' decision to pursue a fresh private round at up to $188 billion valuation in July 2026, rather than file an S-1, underpins the 63.5% market-implied probability of no IPO by end-2027. CEO Ali Ghodsi cited a crowded 2026 calendar and unfavorable conditions, prompting the company to extend its private status despite ARR reaching $6.9 billion (80% YoY growth). This trajectory, anchored by the prior $134 billion Series L round and secondary trading in the $165–175 billion range, shapes trader consensus around mid-tier outcomes such as $150–200 billion if an IPO eventually occurs. Upcoming catalysts include any shift in Fed policy or IPO window reopening that could accelerate timing and lift closing market-cap expectations.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Thị trường mở: Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$244Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Databricks' decision to pursue a fresh private round at up to $188 billion valuation in July 2026, rather than file an S-1, underpins the 63.5% market-implied probability of no IPO by end-2027. CEO Ali Ghodsi cited a crowded 2026 calendar and unfavorable conditions, prompting the company to extend its private status despite ARR reaching $6.9 billion (80% YoY growth). This trajectory, anchored by the prior $134 billion Series L round and secondary trading in the $165–175 billion range, shapes trader consensus around mid-tier outcomes such as $150–200 billion if an IPO eventually occurs. Upcoming catalysts include any shift in Fed policy or IPO window reopening that could accelerate timing and lift closing market-cap expectations.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Khối lượng
$244Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Databricks' decision to pursue a fresh private round at up to $188 billion valuation in July 2026, rather than file an S-1, underpins the 63.5% market-implied probability of no IPO by end-2027. CEO Ali Ghodsi cited a crowded 2026 calendar and unfavorable conditions, prompting the company to extend its private status despite ARR reaching $6.9 billion (80% YoY growth). This trajectory, anchored by the prior $134 billion Series L round and secondary trading in the $165–175 billion range, shapes trader consensus around mid-tier outcomes such as $150–200 billion if an IPO eventually occurs. Upcoming catalysts include any shift in Fed policy or IPO window reopening that could accelerate timing and lift closing market-cap expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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