China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 4.3–4.9% range, reflecting Q2’s actual 4.3% reading and first-half growth of 4.7% that already moderated from Q1’s 5.0%. Persistent weakness in domestic demand—subdued retail sales and the ongoing property-sector drag—continues to offset resilient industrial output, exports, and manufacturing momentum in technology and green sectors. Most institutional forecasts for full-year 2026 cluster at 4.5–4.6%, aligned with the authorities’ 4.5–5% target and underscoring limited scope for upside absent fresh fiscal or monetary stimulus. October’s official National Bureau of Statistics release will resolve the market.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 39%
4.0-4.3% 11.9%
4.9-5.2% 2.7%
$26,741 KL.
$26,741 KL.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
12%
4.3-4.6%
49%
4.6-4.9%
39%
4.9-5.2%
3%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 39%
4.0-4.3% 11.9%
4.9-5.2% 2.7%
$26,741 KL.
$26,741 KL.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
$952 KL.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 KL.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 KL.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,623 KL.
12%
4.3-4.6%
$10,014 KL.
49%
4.6-4.9%
$7,996 KL.
39%
4.9-5.2%
$2,841 KL.
3%
5.2-5.5%
$899 KL.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,040 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q3 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 4.3–4.9% range, reflecting Q2’s actual 4.3% reading and first-half growth of 4.7% that already moderated from Q1’s 5.0%. Persistent weakness in domestic demand—subdued retail sales and the ongoing property-sector drag—continues to offset resilient industrial output, exports, and manufacturing momentum in technology and green sectors. Most institutional forecasts for full-year 2026 cluster at 4.5–4.6%, aligned with the authorities’ 4.5–5% target and underscoring limited scope for upside absent fresh fiscal or monetary stimulus. October’s official National Bureau of Statistics release will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Thị trường mở: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,741Ngày kết thúc
Oct 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q3 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 4.3–4.9% range, reflecting Q2’s actual 4.3% reading and first-half growth of 4.7% that already moderated from Q1’s 5.0%. Persistent weakness in domestic demand—subdued retail sales and the ongoing property-sector drag—continues to offset resilient industrial output, exports, and manufacturing momentum in technology and green sectors. Most institutional forecasts for full-year 2026 cluster at 4.5–4.6%, aligned with the authorities’ 4.5–5% target and underscoring limited scope for upside absent fresh fiscal or monetary stimulus. October’s official National Bureau of Statistics release will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Khối lượng
$26,741Ngày kết thúc
Oct 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 4.3–4.9% range, reflecting Q2’s actual 4.3% reading and first-half growth of 4.7% that already moderated from Q1’s 5.0%. Persistent weakness in domestic demand—subdued retail sales and the ongoing property-sector drag—continues to offset resilient industrial output, exports, and manufacturing momentum in technology and green sectors. Most institutional forecasts for full-year 2026 cluster at 4.5–4.6%, aligned with the authorities’ 4.5–5% target and underscoring limited scope for upside absent fresh fiscal or monetary stimulus. October’s official National Bureau of Statistics release will resolve the market.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp