Redistricting under Proposition 50 transformed California's 48th congressional district from a Republican-leaning seat into one with a Democratic tilt, a shift reflected in ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball as Lean or Tilt Democratic. Incumbent Representative Darrell Issa retired in early 2026, opening the race and allowing San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond to consolidate Republican support with endorsements from Issa and former President Trump. On the Democratic side, a crowded primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two contest has produced vote-splitting among candidates including Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar. Recent polling averages show Desmond leading the primary but underscore the district's voter registration and partisan composition favoring a Democratic general-election outcome in November. Trader consensus on these probabilities tracks the district's structural Democratic advantage and the limited path for Republican advancement beyond the primary.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-48 House Election Winner
CA-48 House Election Winner
$10,087 KL.
$10,087 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
86%
Republican Party
14%
$10,087 KL.
$10,087 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,768 KL.
86%
Republican Party
$4,319 KL.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 transformed California's 48th congressional district from a Republican-leaning seat into one with a Democratic tilt, a shift reflected in ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball as Lean or Tilt Democratic. Incumbent Representative Darrell Issa retired in early 2026, opening the race and allowing San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond to consolidate Republican support with endorsements from Issa and former President Trump. On the Democratic side, a crowded primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two contest has produced vote-splitting among candidates including Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar. Recent polling averages show Desmond leading the primary but underscore the district's voter registration and partisan composition favoring a Democratic general-election outcome in November. Trader consensus on these probabilities tracks the district's structural Democratic advantage and the limited path for Republican advancement beyond the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$10,087Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 transformed California's 48th congressional district from a Republican-leaning seat into one with a Democratic tilt, a shift reflected in ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball as Lean or Tilt Democratic. Incumbent Representative Darrell Issa retired in early 2026, opening the race and allowing San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond to consolidate Republican support with endorsements from Issa and former President Trump. On the Democratic side, a crowded primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two contest has produced vote-splitting among candidates including Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar. Recent polling averages show Desmond leading the primary but underscore the district's voter registration and partisan composition favoring a Democratic general-election outcome in November. Trader consensus on these probabilities tracks the district's structural Democratic advantage and the limited path for Republican advancement beyond the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$10,087Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 transformed California's 48th congressional district from a Republican-leaning seat into one with a Democratic tilt, a shift reflected in ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball as Lean or Tilt Democratic. Incumbent Representative Darrell Issa retired in early 2026, opening the race and allowing San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond to consolidate Republican support with endorsements from Issa and former President Trump. On the Democratic side, a crowded primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two contest has produced vote-splitting among candidates including Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar. Recent polling averages show Desmond leading the primary but underscore the district's voter registration and partisan composition favoring a Democratic general-election outcome in November. Trader consensus on these probabilities tracks the district's structural Democratic advantage and the limited path for Republican advancement beyond the primary.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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