The strong Democratic partisan lean in California's 26th congressional district, centered in Ventura County, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election. Longtime incumbent Julia Brownley’s retirement has created an open seat with a crowded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, while Republican candidates show limited fundraising and organizational strength. Forecasters consistently rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. A realistic shift in odds would require an exceptionally strong Republican advancing from the primary combined with substantial changes in national political conditions or turnout before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-26 House Election Winner
CA-26 House Election Winner
$26,373 KL.
$26,373 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$26,373 KL.
$26,373 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,001 KL.
93%
Republican Party
$12,373 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic partisan lean in California's 26th congressional district, centered in Ventura County, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election. Longtime incumbent Julia Brownley’s retirement has created an open seat with a crowded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, while Republican candidates show limited fundraising and organizational strength. Forecasters consistently rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. A realistic shift in odds would require an exceptionally strong Republican advancing from the primary combined with substantial changes in national political conditions or turnout before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Khối lượng
$26,373Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic partisan lean in California's 26th congressional district, centered in Ventura County, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election. Longtime incumbent Julia Brownley’s retirement has created an open seat with a crowded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, while Republican candidates show limited fundraising and organizational strength. Forecasters consistently rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. A realistic shift in odds would require an exceptionally strong Republican advancing from the primary combined with substantial changes in national political conditions or turnout before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$26,373Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic partisan lean in California's 26th congressional district, centered in Ventura County, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election. Longtime incumbent Julia Brownley’s retirement has created an open seat with a crowded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, while Republican candidates show limited fundraising and organizational strength. Forecasters consistently rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. A realistic shift in odds would require an exceptionally strong Republican advancing from the primary combined with substantial changes in national political conditions or turnout before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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