Following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death in January 2026, California's 1st Congressional District faces both a special election on the old Republican-leaning map (Trump +25 in 2024) and a regular midterm contest on new Proposition 50 boundaries adding Democratic strongholds like Sonoma County and Santa Rosa while dropping areas such as Redding and Yuba City, creating an estimated Kamala Harris +12 lean. State Senate President pro Tem Mike McGuire (D) leads a February poll at 33% ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan primary, where top two advance to November; other contenders include ex-challenger Audrey Denney (D) and Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher (R, Trump-endorsed). Trader consensus at 91.5% for Democrats reflects this district shift, strong fundraising by McGuire and Denney, and California's top-two dynamics potentially yielding a Democratic matchup. Realistic challenges include a GOP-Dem top two with Gallagher surging on national midterm tailwinds, low Democratic turnout, or a late Dem scandal before polls close.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$22,046 KL.
$22,046 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
6%
$22,046 KL.
$22,046 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,173 KL.
92%
Republican Party
$7,873 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death in January 2026, California's 1st Congressional District faces both a special election on the old Republican-leaning map (Trump +25 in 2024) and a regular midterm contest on new Proposition 50 boundaries adding Democratic strongholds like Sonoma County and Santa Rosa while dropping areas such as Redding and Yuba City, creating an estimated Kamala Harris +12 lean. State Senate President pro Tem Mike McGuire (D) leads a February poll at 33% ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan primary, where top two advance to November; other contenders include ex-challenger Audrey Denney (D) and Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher (R, Trump-endorsed). Trader consensus at 91.5% for Democrats reflects this district shift, strong fundraising by McGuire and Denney, and California's top-two dynamics potentially yielding a Democratic matchup. Realistic challenges include a GOP-Dem top two with Gallagher surging on national midterm tailwinds, low Democratic turnout, or a late Dem scandal before polls close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$22,046Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death in January 2026, California's 1st Congressional District faces both a special election on the old Republican-leaning map (Trump +25 in 2024) and a regular midterm contest on new Proposition 50 boundaries adding Democratic strongholds like Sonoma County and Santa Rosa while dropping areas such as Redding and Yuba City, creating an estimated Kamala Harris +12 lean. State Senate President pro Tem Mike McGuire (D) leads a February poll at 33% ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan primary, where top two advance to November; other contenders include ex-challenger Audrey Denney (D) and Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher (R, Trump-endorsed). Trader consensus at 91.5% for Democrats reflects this district shift, strong fundraising by McGuire and Denney, and California's top-two dynamics potentially yielding a Democratic matchup. Realistic challenges include a GOP-Dem top two with Gallagher surging on national midterm tailwinds, low Democratic turnout, or a late Dem scandal before polls close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$22,046Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death in January 2026, California's 1st Congressional District faces both a special election on the old Republican-leaning map (Trump +25 in 2024) and a regular midterm contest on new Proposition 50 boundaries adding Democratic strongholds like Sonoma County and Santa Rosa while dropping areas such as Redding and Yuba City, creating an estimated Kamala Harris +12 lean. State Senate President pro Tem Mike McGuire (D) leads a February poll at 33% ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan primary, where top two advance to November; other contenders include ex-challenger Audrey Denney (D) and Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher (R, Trump-endorsed). Trader consensus at 91.5% for Democrats reflects this district shift, strong fundraising by McGuire and Denney, and California's top-two dynamics potentially yielding a Democratic matchup. Realistic challenges include a GOP-Dem top two with Gallagher surging on national midterm tailwinds, low Democratic turnout, or a late Dem scandal before polls close.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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