Traders assign a 56% probability against a blue tsunami in the 2026 midterms, reflecting Democrats’ typical opposition-party advantage in a referendum on the Trump administration alongside persistent structural barriers. Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a modest national lead, supporting strong House prospects amid elevated Democratic primary turnout in states such as Texas and Georgia. However, the Senate map features 23 Republican-held seats, many in conservative territory, limiting net gains needed for majority control. May 2026 GOP primaries, where Trump-endorsed candidates prevailed, have further consolidated Republican messaging without shifting the overall competitive balance. These factors position sizable Democratic House gains as likely while a combined sweep or overwhelming wave remains less probable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$28,826 KL.
$28,826 KL.
Nov 30, 2026
$28,826 KL.
$28,826 KL.
Nov 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfTraders assign a 56% probability against a blue tsunami in the 2026 midterms, reflecting Democrats’ typical opposition-party advantage in a referendum on the Trump administration alongside persistent structural barriers. Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a modest national lead, supporting strong House prospects amid elevated Democratic primary turnout in states such as Texas and Georgia. However, the Senate map features 23 Republican-held seats, many in conservative territory, limiting net gains needed for majority control. May 2026 GOP primaries, where Trump-endorsed candidates prevailed, have further consolidated Republican messaging without shifting the overall competitive balance. These factors position sizable Democratic House gains as likely while a combined sweep or overwhelming wave remains less probable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Thị trường mở: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Khối lượng
$28,826Ngày kết thúc
Nov 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfTraders assign a 56% probability against a blue tsunami in the 2026 midterms, reflecting Democrats’ typical opposition-party advantage in a referendum on the Trump administration alongside persistent structural barriers. Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a modest national lead, supporting strong House prospects amid elevated Democratic primary turnout in states such as Texas and Georgia. However, the Senate map features 23 Republican-held seats, many in conservative territory, limiting net gains needed for majority control. May 2026 GOP primaries, where Trump-endorsed candidates prevailed, have further consolidated Republican messaging without shifting the overall competitive balance. These factors position sizable Democratic House gains as likely while a combined sweep or overwhelming wave remains less probable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Khối lượng
$28,826Ngày kết thúc
Nov 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 56% probability against a blue tsunami in the 2026 midterms, reflecting Democrats’ typical opposition-party advantage in a referendum on the Trump administration alongside persistent structural barriers. Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a modest national lead, supporting strong House prospects amid elevated Democratic primary turnout in states such as Texas and Georgia. However, the Senate map features 23 Republican-held seats, many in conservative territory, limiting net gains needed for majority control. May 2026 GOP primaries, where Trump-endorsed candidates prevailed, have further consolidated Republican messaging without shifting the overall competitive balance. These factors position sizable Democratic House gains as likely while a combined sweep or overwhelming wave remains less probable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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