Trader consensus assigns claude-opus-4-6-thinking a 100% implied probability of being the top AI model on the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text Overall leaderboard (style control off) as of April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, driven by its dominant Elo score from crowd-sourced battles emphasizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair in math, coding, and creative tasks. Anthropic's February release of Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking propelled it to #1 with scores like 1502-1546, outpacing rivals through superior long-context handling and instruction-following. Yesterday's Claude Opus 4.7 launch bolsters Anthropic's edge long-term but awaits voter integration on the leaderboard. Realistic challenges include a pre-resolution vote surge for Opus 4.7 or competitors like Gemini 3.1 Pro, though traders see negligible risk given current positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview <1%
gemini-3-flash <1%
$80,973 KL.
$80,973 KL.
Apr 17, 2026
claude-opus-4-6
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
No
gemini-3-flash
No
dola-seed-2.0-preview
No
kimi-k2.5-thinking
No
muse-spark
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Yes
qwen3.5-max-preview
No
gemini-3-pro
No
gemini-2.5-pro
No
grok-4.20-beta1
No
gpt-5.4-high
No
glm-5.1
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview <1%
gemini-3-flash <1%
$80,973 KL.
$80,973 KL.
Apr 17, 2026
claude-opus-4-6
$7,349 KL.
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$4,731 KL.
No
gemini-3-flash
$1,626 KL.
No
dola-seed-2.0-preview
$1,104 KL.
No
kimi-k2.5-thinking
$610 KL.
No
muse-spark
$6,106 KL.
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$49,774 KL.
Yes
qwen3.5-max-preview
$964 KL.
No
gemini-3-pro
$3,454 KL.
No
gemini-2.5-pro
$649 KL.
No
grok-4.20-beta1
$1,974 KL.
No
gpt-5.4-high
$1,148 KL.
No
glm-5.1
$1,483 KL.
No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus assigns claude-opus-4-6-thinking a 100% implied probability of being the top AI model on the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text Overall leaderboard (style control off) as of April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, driven by its dominant Elo score from crowd-sourced battles emphasizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair in math, coding, and creative tasks. Anthropic's February release of Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking propelled it to #1 with scores like 1502-1546, outpacing rivals through superior long-context handling and instruction-following. Yesterday's Claude Opus 4.7 launch bolsters Anthropic's edge long-term but awaits voter integration on the leaderboard. Realistic challenges include a pre-resolution vote surge for Opus 4.7 or competitors like Gemini 3.1 Pro, though traders see negligible risk given current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 9, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$80,973Ngày kết thúc
Apr 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 9, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus assigns claude-opus-4-6-thinking a 100% implied probability of being the top AI model on the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text Overall leaderboard (style control off) as of April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, driven by its dominant Elo score from crowd-sourced battles emphasizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair in math, coding, and creative tasks. Anthropic's February release of Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking propelled it to #1 with scores like 1502-1546, outpacing rivals through superior long-context handling and instruction-following. Yesterday's Claude Opus 4.7 launch bolsters Anthropic's edge long-term but awaits voter integration on the leaderboard. Realistic challenges include a pre-resolution vote surge for Opus 4.7 or competitors like Gemini 3.1 Pro, though traders see negligible risk given current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$80,973Ngày kết thúc
Apr 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 9, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Trader consensus assigns claude-opus-4-6-thinking a 100% implied probability of being the top AI model on the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text Overall leaderboard (style control off) as of April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, driven by its dominant Elo score from crowd-sourced battles emphasizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair in math, coding, and creative tasks. Anthropic's February release of Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking propelled it to #1 with scores like 1502-1546, outpacing rivals through superior long-context handling and instruction-following. Yesterday's Claude Opus 4.7 launch bolsters Anthropic's edge long-term but awaits voter integration on the leaderboard. Realistic challenges include a pre-resolution vote surge for Opus 4.7 or competitors like Gemini 3.1 Pro, though traders see negligible risk given current positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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