**The Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus size market is dominated by the 153–157 seat range because the September 20, 2026 election produced a fragmented result across five parties clearing the 5% threshold plus direct mandates, generating overhang and leveling seats that pushed the total modestly above the 130-seat baseline.** Die Linke’s strong performance (around 25.7%) and the CDU’s decline created multiple overhang mandates, but a recount in the Spandau 1 constituency—shifting one direct seat to the AfD—eliminated several leveling mandates, trimming the preliminary count from roughly 158 to an expected 153. Current polling and vote shares indicate limited scope for further expansion or contraction before the official certification on October 12, aligning trader consensus with this adjusted total. The system’s sensitivity to small shifts in direct mandates and minor-party performance explains why adjacent ranges remain thinly traded.