The Bank of Russia’s September 2026 decision to hold the key rate at 14% after ten prior cuts, citing significantly higher current price pressures from one-off factors such as fuel shortages tied to refinery capacity issues, has anchored trader expectations for the October 23 meeting. Deputy Governor comments indicate that draft budget parameters align closely with the July baseline forecast, limiting scope for immediate policy adjustment. Moderate third-quarter economic growth, an inflation outlook of 6–7% for 2026 returning to target in 2027, and the absence of strong directional signals from the central bank further support the overwhelming market consensus on no change while keeping limited room for a possible reduction if disinflation resumes faster than anticipated.