The elevated 83% implied probability of no change at Banxico’s November 5 meeting stems primarily from September inflation rising to 3.45% year-over-year—above the 3% target—with upside risks from non-core components and services prices persisting amid modest 1.4% GDP growth forecasts. Minutes from the September hold at 6.50% revealed a divided board, with three members open to a potential cut but two urging caution given external pressures and the peso’s sensitivity to Fed policy divergence. Analyst consensus, including Reuters polls, anticipates another pause, with any easing likely deferred to December pending October data and orderly exchange-rate conditions. Modest probabilities for a 25-basis-point cut or hike reflect data dependence and limited room for decisive shifts before year-end.