Brazil’s central bank has delivered five consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cuts, most recently lowering the benchmark to 13.75% in September while keeping the door open for further easing. Recent Focus and Febraban surveys show market participants pricing a sixth 25-basis-point reduction by year-end, with the median Selic forecast at 13.50%, reflecting cooling GDP growth now projected at 1.8% for 2026 and inflation converging toward the 3% target at the policy-relevant horizon. Elevated 2026 IPCA expectations near 5% and post-election fiscal uncertainty continue to cap the scope for larger moves, anchoring trader consensus around a measured continuation of the calibration cycle ahead of the November Copom meeting.