A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 indices reaching very strong levels near +2.7°C by early August, has driven elevated sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific and contributed to record daily global ocean warmth of 21.1°C on August 22. This combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to push surface temperature anomalies higher, consistent with July 2026 values near 1.56°C in Berkeley Earth data and ERA5 indications that August 2026 ranked as the warmest such month on record. Official monitoring from Copernicus and NOAA highlights how these conditions align with the market’s dominant 1.38–1.41°C bin, while model consensus and recent observational shifts limit support for substantially higher or lower outcomes until final dataset releases.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 79%
1.42–1.45ºC 18%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,059 KL.
$20,059 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
79%
1.42–1.45ºC
18%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 79%
1.42–1.45ºC 18%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,059 KL.
$20,059 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 KL.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 KL.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,129 KL.
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,428 KL.
79%
1.42–1.45ºC
$8,853 KL.
18%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 indices reaching very strong levels near +2.7°C by early August, has driven elevated sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific and contributed to record daily global ocean warmth of 21.1°C on August 22. This combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to push surface temperature anomalies higher, consistent with July 2026 values near 1.56°C in Berkeley Earth data and ERA5 indications that August 2026 ranked as the warmest such month on record. Official monitoring from Copernicus and NOAA highlights how these conditions align with the market’s dominant 1.38–1.41°C bin, while model consensus and recent observational shifts limit support for substantially higher or lower outcomes until final dataset releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Thị trường mở: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Khối lượng
$20,059Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 indices reaching very strong levels near +2.7°C by early August, has driven elevated sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific and contributed to record daily global ocean warmth of 21.1°C on August 22. This combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to push surface temperature anomalies higher, consistent with July 2026 values near 1.56°C in Berkeley Earth data and ERA5 indications that August 2026 ranked as the warmest such month on record. Official monitoring from Copernicus and NOAA highlights how these conditions align with the market’s dominant 1.38–1.41°C bin, while model consensus and recent observational shifts limit support for substantially higher or lower outcomes until final dataset releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Khối lượng
$20,059Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 indices reaching very strong levels near +2.7°C by early August, has driven elevated sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific and contributed to record daily global ocean warmth of 21.1°C on August 22. This combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to push surface temperature anomalies higher, consistent with July 2026 values near 1.56°C in Berkeley Earth data and ERA5 indications that August 2026 ranked as the warmest such month on record. Official monitoring from Copernicus and NOAA highlights how these conditions align with the market’s dominant 1.38–1.41°C bin, while model consensus and recent observational shifts limit support for substantially higher or lower outcomes until final dataset releases.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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