Mary Peltola holds a commanding 99.2% implied probability in the Alaska Senate race because she leads in first-choice votes by roughly 4,250 ballots (49.0% to 47.2%) with 84% of expected ballots counted as of November 11. Ongoing counts of absentee and early ballots have steadily widened her margin since Election Night, while the independent “Decoy Dan” candidate drew 1.7% that appears to split Republican preferences. Under Alaska’s ranked-choice system, the absence of a 50% first-choice majority triggers tabulation on November 18, with certification expected November 25. Remaining ballots and second-choice reallocations from eliminated candidates represent the main remaining variables, though current trends leave little realistic path for Sen. Dan Sullivan to overtake the leader.