Mary Peltola holds a commanding lead in first-choice votes in Alaska’s 2026 Senate race, currently near 49.2 percent to incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 46.8 percent after recent ballot drops totaling thousands of mail and absentee votes. Ongoing counting of late-arriving ballots has steadily widened her margin since Election Day, with Sullivan showing relative weakness in traditionally Republican areas. Alaska’s ranked-choice system will trigger tabulation on November 18 if neither reaches 50 percent first preferences, though preliminary redistribution models already project Peltola prevailing. Minor candidates, including a namesake contender, continue to split limited support. Certification is targeted for November 25. The only realistic paths to alter the outcome involve unexpected shifts in the final ballots or tabulation results that reverse the established trend.