Mary Peltola holds a strong lead in the 2026 Alaska Senate race under ranked-choice voting, with recent polling averages showing her ahead of incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan by narrow to moderate margins. Peltola captured 49.5% in the August nonpartisan top-four primary compared to Sullivan’s 41.4%, advancing alongside two minor Republican candidates after a Democratic rival withdrew. Multiple surveys from late September and early October, including a New York Times/Siena poll, indicate Peltola’s advantages among independents and certain demographic groups, prompting some forecasters to shift the contest to Lean Democratic. Sullivan has received high-profile Republican support and participated in debates, but the race remains competitive heading into the November 3 general election.