The redrawn Alabama 2nd District map, upheld after Supreme Court action on related cases, shifted the seat to an R+7 partisan voting index with Donald Trump carrying it by double digits in 2024 results, positioning Republican nominee Rhett Marques as the clear favorite against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures. Marques secured the GOP nomination outright in the August primary and has benefited from a Trump rally appearance and endorsements that amplified attacks on Figures’ voting record on taxes and other issues. Figures has pushed for debates while highlighting Marques’ state legislative record on fuel taxes and criticizing Republican-backed measures on congressional stock trading. Recent Democratic ad spending has outpaced Republican efforts, yet forecasters rate the race as lean or likely Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with trader pricing that reflects the district’s structural tilt and campaign momentum.