Mailza Assis (PP) holds a commanding 97% implied probability in the Acre gubernatorial runoff market after securing 49.76% in the October 4 first round, advancing against Senator Alan Rick (Republicanos) at 32.27%. She prevailed in 19 of 22 municipalities, including Rio Branco, drawing on her role as incumbent governor since April 2026, a broad coalition including PDT, MDB, PL, and União, and continuity with the prior PP-led administration. Rick, a sitting senator, consolidated opposition support but trailed by nearly 18 points. The October 25 second round begins from zero, so shifts among eliminated candidates' voters or turnout changes could narrow the gap, though Mailza's geographic strength and first-round margin underpin trader consensus on her frontrunner status.