Iran maintains firm military control over Abu Musa through Revolutionary Guard bases, missile systems, and naval facilities that support Strait of Hormuz operations, despite U.S. strikes on the island during earlier 2026 escalation. Iran’s Foreign Ministry reiterated undisputed sovereignty on September 9, citing historical and legal grounds, while the Arab League and GCC renewed calls for UAE restoration via negotiation or International Court of Justice referral. No territorial shift has occurred since the 1971 seizure, and recent Iranian deployments plus military drills reinforce the status quo amid broader Gulf tensions. Traders weigh these factors against any future diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed conflict that could alter effective administration.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$96,439 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
3%
$96,439 KL.
September 30
$3,041 KL.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm military control over Abu Musa through Revolutionary Guard bases, missile systems, and naval facilities that support Strait of Hormuz operations, despite U.S. strikes on the island during earlier 2026 escalation. Iran’s Foreign Ministry reiterated undisputed sovereignty on September 9, citing historical and legal grounds, while the Arab League and GCC renewed calls for UAE restoration via negotiation or International Court of Justice referral. No territorial shift has occurred since the 1971 seizure, and recent Iranian deployments plus military drills reinforce the status quo amid broader Gulf tensions. Traders weigh these factors against any future diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed conflict that could alter effective administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Khối lượng
$96,439Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm military control over Abu Musa through Revolutionary Guard bases, missile systems, and naval facilities that support Strait of Hormuz operations, despite U.S. strikes on the island during earlier 2026 escalation. Iran’s Foreign Ministry reiterated undisputed sovereignty on September 9, citing historical and legal grounds, while the Arab League and GCC renewed calls for UAE restoration via negotiation or International Court of Justice referral. No territorial shift has occurred since the 1971 seizure, and recent Iranian deployments plus military drills reinforce the status quo amid broader Gulf tensions. Traders weigh these factors against any future diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed conflict that could alter effective administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$96,439Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm military control over Abu Musa through Revolutionary Guard bases, missile systems, and naval facilities that support Strait of Hormuz operations, despite U.S. strikes on the island during earlier 2026 escalation. Iran’s Foreign Ministry reiterated undisputed sovereignty on September 9, citing historical and legal grounds, while the Arab League and GCC renewed calls for UAE restoration via negotiation or International Court of Justice referral. No territorial shift has occurred since the 1971 seizure, and recent Iranian deployments plus military drills reinforce the status quo amid broader Gulf tensions. Traders weigh these factors against any future diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed conflict that could alter effective administration.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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