Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and intensified fighting have elevated attack risks at Bab el-Mandeb, prompting some container operators to maintain Cape of Good Hope diversions that add 10–14 days and roughly $1 million per voyage. Yet September container transits reached a post-crisis high of 314 crossings—up 64% year-over-year—with larger vessels leading the rebound as carriers including ONE restore Red Sea strings. Tanker flows remain lower but nonzero, averaging around nine per day in early October per IMF PortWatch tracking, supported by Saudi pipeline and Yanbu loadings. Elevated freight rates and insurance costs continue to price in volatility, while the market-implied odds of a complete daily shutdown reflect persistent commercial incentives and partial traffic recovery amid the uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include further coalition responses and any escalation in coastal control.