Traders assign a 99% probability to no divorce before 2027 because Peng Liyuan continues to fulfill her public role as first lady with documented official appearances, including a October 2026 video address for UNESCO and joint state visits alongside Xi Jinping in September 2026. Chinese Communist Party norms prioritize a stable family image to reinforce leadership authority, while information controls and the absence of any credible announcements have consistently contradicted earlier unverified 2025 rumors. Historical patterns among senior leaders further align with this consensus, reflecting the political costs of personal disclosures. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected official statement or verified reporting of separation, though both face formidable institutional and timeline barriers through the end of 2026.