**Democratic control of the House after the 2026 midterms remains the central variable priced into the 65.5% Yes probability.** Multiple impeachment resolutions have already been introduced in 2026, primarily over military actions and statements during the Iran conflict, including claims of unauthorized strikes and escalatory rhetoric, though all have failed under Republican House majorities. Traders appear to assign meaningful weight to the possibility that Democrats could flip the chamber in November 2026, lowering the threshold for articles of impeachment in the remaining years of the term. Short-term markets reflect this timeline, showing low odds before year-end 2026 but rising chances by 2028. Senate conviction is viewed as improbable regardless of House action, keeping focus on the initial vote as the resolution trigger.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
$65,781 Обс.
$65,781 Обс.
Jan 20, 2029
$65,781 Обс.
$65,781 Обс.
Jan 20, 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.**Democratic control of the House after the 2026 midterms remains the central variable priced into the 65.5% Yes probability.** Multiple impeachment resolutions have already been introduced in 2026, primarily over military actions and statements during the Iran conflict, including claims of unauthorized strikes and escalatory rhetoric, though all have failed under Republican House majorities. Traders appear to assign meaningful weight to the possibility that Democrats could flip the chamber in November 2026, lowering the threshold for articles of impeachment in the remaining years of the term. Short-term markets reflect this timeline, showing low odds before year-end 2026 but rising chances by 2028. Senate conviction is viewed as improbable regardless of House action, keeping focus on the initial vote as the resolution trigger.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Обсяг
$65,781Дата завершення
Jan 20, 2029Ринок відкрито
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.**Democratic control of the House after the 2026 midterms remains the central variable priced into the 65.5% Yes probability.** Multiple impeachment resolutions have already been introduced in 2026, primarily over military actions and statements during the Iran conflict, including claims of unauthorized strikes and escalatory rhetoric, though all have failed under Republican House majorities. Traders appear to assign meaningful weight to the possibility that Democrats could flip the chamber in November 2026, lowering the threshold for articles of impeachment in the remaining years of the term. Short-term markets reflect this timeline, showing low odds before year-end 2026 but rising chances by 2028. Senate conviction is viewed as improbable regardless of House action, keeping focus on the initial vote as the resolution trigger.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Обсяг
$65,781Дата завершення
Jan 20, 2029Ринок відкрито
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Democratic control of the House after the 2026 midterms remains the central variable priced into the 65.5% Yes probability.** Multiple impeachment resolutions have already been introduced in 2026, primarily over military actions and statements during the Iran conflict, including claims of unauthorized strikes and escalatory rhetoric, though all have failed under Republican House majorities. Traders appear to assign meaningful weight to the possibility that Democrats could flip the chamber in November 2026, lowering the threshold for articles of impeachment in the remaining years of the term. Short-term markets reflect this timeline, showing low odds before year-end 2026 but rising chances by 2028. Senate conviction is viewed as improbable regardless of House action, keeping focus on the initial vote as the resolution trigger.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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