Strong bipartisan backing for U.S.-Israel military assistance, particularly unified Republican opposition to cuts, underpins the 96% implied probability against House passage of a restrictive bill by September 30. Recent amendments seeking to eliminate $3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing failed decisively in July 2026, with votes of 314-104 and near-unanimous GOP resistance, while the National Defense Authorization Act advanced with expanded defense cooperation provisions. With limited session days remaining before the deadline and no pending legislation gaining traction, the chamber’s appropriations and policy priorities continue to favor existing aid frameworks tied to the 2016 memorandum of understanding. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen regional crisis or procedural maneuver capable of overriding leadership control in the final weeks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
4% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong bipartisan backing for U.S.-Israel military assistance, particularly unified Republican opposition to cuts, underpins the 96% implied probability against House passage of a restrictive bill by September 30. Recent amendments seeking to eliminate $3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing failed decisively in July 2026, with votes of 314-104 and near-unanimous GOP resistance, while the National Defense Authorization Act advanced with expanded defense cooperation provisions. With limited session days remaining before the deadline and no pending legislation gaining traction, the chamber’s appropriations and policy priorities continue to favor existing aid frameworks tied to the 2016 memorandum of understanding. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen regional crisis or procedural maneuver capable of overriding leadership control in the final weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,972Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong bipartisan backing for U.S.-Israel military assistance, particularly unified Republican opposition to cuts, underpins the 96% implied probability against House passage of a restrictive bill by September 30. Recent amendments seeking to eliminate $3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing failed decisively in July 2026, with votes of 314-104 and near-unanimous GOP resistance, while the National Defense Authorization Act advanced with expanded defense cooperation provisions. With limited session days remaining before the deadline and no pending legislation gaining traction, the chamber’s appropriations and policy priorities continue to favor existing aid frameworks tied to the 2016 memorandum of understanding. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen regional crisis or procedural maneuver capable of overriding leadership control in the final weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$1,972Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Strong bipartisan backing for U.S.-Israel military assistance, particularly unified Republican opposition to cuts, underpins the 96% implied probability against House passage of a restrictive bill by September 30. Recent amendments seeking to eliminate $3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing failed decisively in July 2026, with votes of 314-104 and near-unanimous GOP resistance, while the National Defense Authorization Act advanced with expanded defense cooperation provisions. With limited session days remaining before the deadline and no pending legislation gaining traction, the chamber’s appropriations and policy priorities continue to favor existing aid frameworks tied to the 2016 memorandum of understanding. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen regional crisis or procedural maneuver capable of overriding leadership control in the final weeks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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