Traders assign a 99% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale military preparations such as major amphibious buildups or logistics surges in the narrow remaining window. Ongoing gray-zone pressure, including sustained but reduced PLA air defense identification zone incursions and expanded China Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan, continues without escalation to combat operations. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang exercises have emphasized defensive resilience and U.S.-aligned tactics amid these activities. Diplomatic exchanges, such as Chinese calls for U.S. caution on Taiwan matters, have remained measured. While a sudden crisis or miscalculation could still shift dynamics, the compressed timeline and lack of detectable invasion indicators underpin the strong market consensus.