Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare even amid ongoing bilateral frictions, supporting trader consensus around a 62.5% implied probability for no such action by year-end. Recent tensions include South African opposition calls and parliamentary rebukes of Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over remarks on domestic politics, alongside Canadian government rebuffs of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra amid trade and sovereignty disputes, yet neither resulted in formal persona non grata declarations. Hezbollah statements urging Lebanon to act similarly produced no official response, while broader U.S. diplomatic vacancies stem primarily from internal State Department staffing shifts rather than host-country retaliation. Scheduled summits and ongoing negotiations in key regions have so far contained escalations short of expulsion thresholds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$16,843 Обс.
$16,843 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$16,843 Обс.
$16,843 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare even amid ongoing bilateral frictions, supporting trader consensus around a 62.5% implied probability for no such action by year-end. Recent tensions include South African opposition calls and parliamentary rebukes of Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over remarks on domestic politics, alongside Canadian government rebuffs of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra amid trade and sovereignty disputes, yet neither resulted in formal persona non grata declarations. Hezbollah statements urging Lebanon to act similarly produced no official response, while broader U.S. diplomatic vacancies stem primarily from internal State Department staffing shifts rather than host-country retaliation. Scheduled summits and ongoing negotiations in key regions have so far contained escalations short of expulsion thresholds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Обсяг
$16,843Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare even amid ongoing bilateral frictions, supporting trader consensus around a 62.5% implied probability for no such action by year-end. Recent tensions include South African opposition calls and parliamentary rebukes of Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over remarks on domestic politics, alongside Canadian government rebuffs of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra amid trade and sovereignty disputes, yet neither resulted in formal persona non grata declarations. Hezbollah statements urging Lebanon to act similarly produced no official response, while broader U.S. diplomatic vacancies stem primarily from internal State Department staffing shifts rather than host-country retaliation. Scheduled summits and ongoing negotiations in key regions have so far contained escalations short of expulsion thresholds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$16,843Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare even amid ongoing bilateral frictions, supporting trader consensus around a 62.5% implied probability for no such action by year-end. Recent tensions include South African opposition calls and parliamentary rebukes of Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over remarks on domestic politics, alongside Canadian government rebuffs of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra amid trade and sovereignty disputes, yet neither resulted in formal persona non grata declarations. Hezbollah statements urging Lebanon to act similarly produced no official response, while broader U.S. diplomatic vacancies stem primarily from internal State Department staffing shifts rather than host-country retaliation. Scheduled summits and ongoing negotiations in key regions have so far contained escalations short of expulsion thresholds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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