Anthropic's confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and active preparations for a November listing at a potential $2 trillion valuation drive the 95.9% implied probability that it reaches public markets ahead of OpenAI. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's concrete timeline and revenue momentum—recently exceeding $65 billion annualized—contrasted with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's September statements ruling out any 2026 debut to prioritize AI safety and alignment work, with the company instead pursuing additional private funding. While the strong odds align with verifiable filings and executive commentary, realistic shifts remain possible if Anthropic encounters regulatory delays, market volatility, or internal pauses, or if OpenAI accelerates its schedule despite stated safety priorities.