The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel genocide case remains in the written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029; oral hearings on the merits are therefore unlikely before late 2029 at the earliest. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for crimes against humanity and war crimes involving starvation tactics but has not charged genocide. South Africa’s August 2026 dossier on provisional-measures compliance keeps pressure on interim obligations yet does not accelerate a final determination. These extended procedural timelines and narrower charges underpin trader consensus that an adverse genocide finding by either court before the end of 2027 is improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено13% шанс
$99,519 Обс.
$99,519 Обс.
Dec 31, 2027
13% шанс
$99,519 Обс.
$99,519 Обс.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel genocide case remains in the written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029; oral hearings on the merits are therefore unlikely before late 2029 at the earliest. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for crimes against humanity and war crimes involving starvation tactics but has not charged genocide. South Africa’s August 2026 dossier on provisional-measures compliance keeps pressure on interim obligations yet does not accelerate a final determination. These extended procedural timelines and narrower charges underpin trader consensus that an adverse genocide finding by either court before the end of 2027 is improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Обсяг
$99,519Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2028Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel genocide case remains in the written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029; oral hearings on the merits are therefore unlikely before late 2029 at the earliest. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for crimes against humanity and war crimes involving starvation tactics but has not charged genocide. South Africa’s August 2026 dossier on provisional-measures compliance keeps pressure on interim obligations yet does not accelerate a final determination. These extended procedural timelines and narrower charges underpin trader consensus that an adverse genocide finding by either court before the end of 2027 is improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$99,519Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2028Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel genocide case remains in the written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029; oral hearings on the merits are therefore unlikely before late 2029 at the earliest. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for crimes against humanity and war crimes involving starvation tactics but has not charged genocide. South Africa’s August 2026 dossier on provisional-measures compliance keeps pressure on interim obligations yet does not accelerate a final determination. These extended procedural timelines and narrower charges underpin trader consensus that an adverse genocide finding by either court before the end of 2027 is improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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