Anthropic's commanding 92.5% market-implied probability stems from its Claude models' repeated outperformance on LiveBench mathematics tasks and related reasoning benchmarks in the latest available releases, where variants have posted top-tier scores in areas like competition-style problems and advanced problem-solving. Traders appear to price in continued momentum from Anthropic's focused scaling of reasoning capabilities and an expected model iteration or optimization before the September 30 resolution date. OpenAI sits at just 6% amid slower recent math-specific gains relative to its overall leaderboard presence, while other labs remain near zero. A late surprise release or fine-tune from OpenAI, DeepSeek, or Moonshot that posts a higher math score on the next LiveBench refresh could still shift the outcome, though current evidence shows limited signs of such disruption materializing in the remaining weeks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?
Anthropic 93%
OpenAI 6%
Google <1%
Microsoft <1%
$44,353 Обс.
$44,353 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
93%
OpenAI
6%
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 93%
OpenAI 6%
Google <1%
Microsoft <1%
$44,353 Обс.
$44,353 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$12,250 Обс.
93%
OpenAI
$13,707 Обс.
6%
$1,300 Обс.
1%
Microsoft
$1,321 Обс.
1%
DeepSeek
$3,155 Обс.
<1%
Meta
$659 Обс.
<1%
Alibaba
$807 Обс.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,070 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$689 Обс.
<1%
Z.ai
$848 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$574 Обс.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$903 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$803 Обс.
<1%
ByteDance
$864 Обс.
<1%
Nvidia
$926 Обс.
<1%
Thinky
$768 Обс.
<1%
MiniMax
$748 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$682 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$657 Обс.
<1%
Tencent
$934 Обс.
<1%
StepFun
$686 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's commanding 92.5% market-implied probability stems from its Claude models' repeated outperformance on LiveBench mathematics tasks and related reasoning benchmarks in the latest available releases, where variants have posted top-tier scores in areas like competition-style problems and advanced problem-solving. Traders appear to price in continued momentum from Anthropic's focused scaling of reasoning capabilities and an expected model iteration or optimization before the September 30 resolution date. OpenAI sits at just 6% amid slower recent math-specific gains relative to its overall leaderboard presence, while other labs remain near zero. A late surprise release or fine-tune from OpenAI, DeepSeek, or Moonshot that posts a higher math score on the next LiveBench refresh could still shift the outcome, though current evidence shows limited signs of such disruption materializing in the remaining weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Ринок відкрито: Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Обсяг
$44,353Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's commanding 92.5% market-implied probability stems from its Claude models' repeated outperformance on LiveBench mathematics tasks and related reasoning benchmarks in the latest available releases, where variants have posted top-tier scores in areas like competition-style problems and advanced problem-solving. Traders appear to price in continued momentum from Anthropic's focused scaling of reasoning capabilities and an expected model iteration or optimization before the September 30 resolution date. OpenAI sits at just 6% amid slower recent math-specific gains relative to its overall leaderboard presence, while other labs remain near zero. A late surprise release or fine-tune from OpenAI, DeepSeek, or Moonshot that posts a higher math score on the next LiveBench refresh could still shift the outcome, though current evidence shows limited signs of such disruption materializing in the remaining weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Обсяг
$44,353Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's commanding 92.5% market-implied probability stems from its Claude models' repeated outperformance on LiveBench mathematics tasks and related reasoning benchmarks in the latest available releases, where variants have posted top-tier scores in areas like competition-style problems and advanced problem-solving. Traders appear to price in continued momentum from Anthropic's focused scaling of reasoning capabilities and an expected model iteration or optimization before the September 30 resolution date. OpenAI sits at just 6% amid slower recent math-specific gains relative to its overall leaderboard presence, while other labs remain near zero. A late surprise release or fine-tune from OpenAI, DeepSeek, or Moonshot that posts a higher math score on the next LiveBench refresh could still shift the outcome, though current evidence shows limited signs of such disruption materializing in the remaining weeks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання