Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1, which tops September 2026 leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.6 and leads aggregate reasoning and agentic evaluations, drives the 69.5% market-implied odds that it will hold the strongest large language model by end of October. Traders appear to weigh the model’s verified gains in coding, science, and tool-use benchmarks against OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, which posts competitive scores in desktop-agent and math tasks yet trails in overall intelligence indices. Google’s Gemini updates and lower-ranked providers show smaller benchmark deltas, aligning with their single-digit or sub-1% probabilities. With roughly seven weeks until resolution, any further model releases or benchmark shifts could still alter these aggregated trader assessments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Anthropic 72%
OpenAI 19.8%
Google 5.8%
Meta 1.0%
$236,701 Обс.
$236,701 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
72%
OpenAI
20%
6%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 72%
OpenAI 19.8%
Google 5.8%
Meta 1.0%
$236,701 Обс.
$236,701 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$41,212 Обс.
72%
OpenAI
$22,352 Обс.
20%
$21,245 Обс.
6%
Meta
$22,209 Обс.
1%
SpaceXAI
$17,114 Обс.
1%
Z.ai
$18,717 Обс.
<1%
DeepSeek
$17,719 Обс.
<1%
Moonshot
$15,866 Обс.
<1%
Alibaba
$13,941 Обс.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,621 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$11,129 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 Обс.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 Обс.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Обс.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 Обс.
<1%
Tencent
$949 Обс.
<1%
StepFun
$540 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1, which tops September 2026 leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.6 and leads aggregate reasoning and agentic evaluations, drives the 69.5% market-implied odds that it will hold the strongest large language model by end of October. Traders appear to weigh the model’s verified gains in coding, science, and tool-use benchmarks against OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, which posts competitive scores in desktop-agent and math tasks yet trails in overall intelligence indices. Google’s Gemini updates and lower-ranked providers show smaller benchmark deltas, aligning with their single-digit or sub-1% probabilities. With roughly seven weeks until resolution, any further model releases or benchmark shifts could still alter these aggregated trader assessments.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Обсяг
$236,701Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1, which tops September 2026 leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.6 and leads aggregate reasoning and agentic evaluations, drives the 69.5% market-implied odds that it will hold the strongest large language model by end of October. Traders appear to weigh the model’s verified gains in coding, science, and tool-use benchmarks against OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, which posts competitive scores in desktop-agent and math tasks yet trails in overall intelligence indices. Google’s Gemini updates and lower-ranked providers show smaller benchmark deltas, aligning with their single-digit or sub-1% probabilities. With roughly seven weeks until resolution, any further model releases or benchmark shifts could still alter these aggregated trader assessments.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$236,701Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1, which tops September 2026 leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.6 and leads aggregate reasoning and agentic evaluations, drives the 69.5% market-implied odds that it will hold the strongest large language model by end of October. Traders appear to weigh the model’s verified gains in coding, science, and tool-use benchmarks against OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, which posts competitive scores in desktop-agent and math tasks yet trails in overall intelligence indices. Google’s Gemini updates and lower-ranked providers show smaller benchmark deltas, aligning with their single-digit or sub-1% probabilities. With roughly seven weeks until resolution, any further model releases or benchmark shifts could still alter these aggregated trader assessments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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